摘要 :
Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications, which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or grading. Data of 51,030 surgical inpatient...
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Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications, which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or grading. Data of 51,030 surgical inpatients were collected from four academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. The relationship between preoperative factors, 22 common complications, and death was analyzed. With input from 54 senior clinicians and following a Bayesian network approach, a complication grading, cluster-visualization, and prediction (GCP) system was designed to model pathways between grades of complication and preoperative risk factor clusters. In the GCP system, there were 11 nodes representing six grades of complication and five preoperative risk factor clusters, and 32 arcs representing a direct association. Several critical targets were pinpointed on the pathway. Malnourished status was a fundamental cause widely associated (7/32 arcs) with other risk factor clusters and complications. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ?3 was directly dependent on all other risk factor clusters and influenced all severe complications. Grade III complications (mainly pneumonia) were directly dependent on 4/5 risk factor clusters and affected all other grades of complication. Irrespective of grade, complication occurrence was more likely to increase the risk of other grades of complication than risk factor clusters.
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摘要 :
Surgery is still far from being completely safe and reliable. Surgical safety has, therefore, been the focus of considerable attention over the last few decades, and there are a growing number of national drives to improve it. The...
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Surgery is still far from being completely safe and reliable. Surgical safety has, therefore, been the focus of considerable attention over the last few decades, and there are a growing number of national drives to improve it. There are also a number of large surgical complication reporting systems and system-based interventions, both of which have made remarkable progress in the past two decades. These systems, however, have either mainly focused on reporting complications and played a limited role in guiding practice or have provided nonselective interventions to all patients, perhaps imposing unnecessary burdens on frontline medical staff. We have, therefore, developed an evidence-based stratified surgical safety information system based on a multicenter surgical safety improvement program. This study discusses some critical issues in the process of developing this information system, including (1) decisions about data gathering, (2) establishing and sharing knowledge, (3) developing functions for the system, (4) system implementation, and (5) evaluation and continuous improvement. Using examples drawn from the surgical safety improvement program, we have shown how this type of system can be fitted into day-to-day clinical practice and how it can guide medical practice by incorporating inherent patient-related risk and providing tailored interventions for patients with different levels of risk. We concluded that multidisciplinary collaboration, involving experts in health care (including senior staff in surgery, nursing, and anesthesia), data science, health care management, and health information technology, can help build an evidence-based stratified surgical patient safety improvement system. This can provide an information-intensified surgical safety learning platform and, therefore, benefit surgical patients by delivering tailored interventions and an integrated workflow.
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Objective To estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand. Methods We developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017–2036 in mainland China and in 31 p...
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Objective To estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand. Methods We developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017–2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016 , China’s report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time. Findings We estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200?mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2?million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥?1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65?years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18–34?years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage. Conclusion Multidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China’s ageing population.
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Abstract Introduction Surgical safety has emerged as a crucial global health issue in the past two decades. Although several safety-enhancing tools are available, the pace of large-scale improvement remains slow, especially in dev...
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Abstract Introduction Surgical safety has emerged as a crucial global health issue in the past two decades. Although several safety-enhancing tools are available, the pace of large-scale improvement remains slow, especially in developing countries such as
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